Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (11.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
77.75% ( 0.16) | 15.2% ( -0.11) | 7.05% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 39.07% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.16% ( 0.28) | 43.84% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.77% ( 0.27) | 66.23% ( -0.27) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.64% ( 0.11) | 9.36% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.47% ( 0.25) | 31.53% ( -0.25) |
Sampdoria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
43.1% ( 0.04) | 56.9% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.01% ( 0.02) | 88.98% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.61% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.92% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 2.38% Other @ 0.38% Total : 15.2% | 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 7.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
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