Given how Genoa have performed in recent weeks, they will fancy their chances of earning at least a share of the spoils against an inconsistent Lazio outfit. Nevertheless, we still expect the visitors to come through this contest, potentially by the odd goal in three in a competitive encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 45.67%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.25%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
